On 15 October, Poland held elections to the Sejm and the Senate combined with a nationwide referendum. Although Law and Justice won the parliamentary elections – winning more than 35 per cent of the vote – it will almost certainly lose power due to the very good performance of the three opposition lists. At the same time, it has to be said that the election result of the current ruling party is impressive. Winning the votes of eight million citizens and civics after eight years of government – the last four years marked by a global pandemic, wars, broken supply chains and an economic crisis – is an amazing feat. Of course, the huge state money allocated to the PiS campaign from referendum funds and state-owned companies contributed to this, and the party propaganda media also contributed their share. The new government is likely to be formed by the Civic Coalition (30.7 per cent), the Third Way (14.4 per cent) and the Left (8.61 per cent) – See more: HERE.
However, the biggest winners of this election are the Poles, who have shown remarkable political maturity. Poles have shown that they are a politically mature society. This is great news for the state and, at the same time, inconvenient news for politicians, who have to come to terms with the fact that they are the executors of the will of the citizens and not the other way around. Not only did Poles turn out at the ballot box in record numbers (voter turnout was as high as 74.38 per cent), but in some places voting continued late into the night on Monday. For example, in one of Wrocław’s housing estates, the last voter cast his vote after two o’clock in the morning. Thus, the political giant that is Polish citizens has woken up. The maturity of voters should also be appreciated. Almost 60 per cent of voters consciously refused to participate in the nationwide referendum accompanying the parliamentary elections. One had to be prepared for such a decision, which undoubtedly required civil courage.
Thus, for the first time under the 1997 Constitution, we will likely see the government being formed by parties that did not win in the parliamentary elections. In forming the new Council of Ministers, the President should act as a political arbiter at the basic stage. Before he undertakes to designate a candidate for prime minister, he should hold broad political consultations with all the groupings that will be represented in the new parliament as was done in the past when Aleksander Kwaśniewski, Lech Kaczyński or Bronisław Komorowski were the head of state.
This time, there are two scenarios as far as the President’s action is concerned. The first assumes a clear desire to try to designate a representative of the Law and Justice party as prime minister, i.e. to choose a candidate indicated by the party in power so far. However, in practice – in an essential procedure – he has no chance of obtaining a vote of confidence from the Sejm. The second scenario considers the real chance of KO, Third Way and the Left forming a majority government. Moreover, in this principled procedure, entrusting the mission of forming it to a candidate is indicated precisely by the existing opposition parties. If we consider the overriding values expressed in the Constitution, the President’s actions should be directed towards making the role of the sovereign a reality.
Assuming, in theory, that the President would show ill will, a back-up procedure remains. Furthermore, under this, the opposition groups will elect the prime minister and the other government members by an absolute majority if they maintain the will to agree. In the first reserve procedure, however, the President’s role is significantly limited; he merely acts as a notary of the Constitution and watches the decisions made in the Sejm. And then he has to consider the will of the lower house anyway.
The factors influencing which scenario comes to pass are many. However, the President should be concerned with ensuring stability in the functioning of the state in the current difficult geopolitical conditions. Poland’s interest certainly requires that a stable government enjoying the confidence of the parliamentary majority be swiftly appointed. The President should not be guided by the particular interests of the circles from which he comes – See more: HERE.
by Maciej Serowaniec
